Let’s suppose weather today was clear and you didn’t look for weather report for tomorrow. Do you expect rain tomorrow? How would you feel if it rains tomorrow? What if you saw it and wasn’t supposed to rain in a time-frame you would be in transit? Again, how would that make you feel? What if the car tire is flat?! Well… shit.
We build expectations that are heavily influenced by availability of data (to say the least), if today doesn’t rain, I’m not expecting rain tomorrow. If the tire wasn’t flat today, why would it be tomorrow?! By the time our expectation is broken, we longer remember or faintly recall how amused we were when these kind of situations happen.
Our world is complex, things we do are complex, our interactions with other people are complex, they all share non-linearity, meaning, they depend one another in ways beyond our awareness, they may change in unpredictable ways given their connections.
It’s simple: “There’s uncertainty on how much uncertainty there is.”
Meanwhile we are here, pretending we know better, trying to guesstimate, but again, how can we make approximations if in some cases we might be off by a factor of unknown.
Besides uncertainty same applies to the past (at least there sometimes we have some evidence). Much of history is a product of the imagination of the people who wrote it. How much of it was left out?
No matter which direction you look, hedging uncertainty to limit its damage might be the only sustainable strategy if your intention is to keep playing.